Modelling the effectiveness and social costs of daily lateral flow antigen tests versus quarantine in preventing onward transmission of COVID-19 from traced contacts (preprint)

Quarantining close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 for 10 to 14 days is a key strategy in reducing transmission. However, quarantine requirements are often unpopular, with low adherence, especially when a large fraction of the population has been vaccinated. Daily contact testing (DCT), in which contacts are required to isolate only if they test positive, is an alternative to quarantine for mitigating the risk of transmission from traced contacts. In this study, we developed an integrated model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and compared the strategies of quarantine and DCT with regard to reduction in transmission and social/economic costs (days of quarantine/self-isolation). Specifically, we compared 10-day quarantine to 7 days of self-testing using rapid lateral flow antigen tests, starting 3 days after exposure to a case. We modelled both incomplete adherence to quarantine and incomplete adherence to DCT. We found that DCT reduces transmission from contacts with similar effectiveness, at much lower social/economic costs, especially for highly vaccinated populations. The findings were robust across a spectrum of scenarios with varying assumptions on the speed of contact tracing, sensitivity of lateral flow antigen tests, adherence to quarantine and uptake of testing. Daily tests would also allow rapid initiation of a new round of tracing from infected contacts.

Quantifying meaningful adoption of a SARS-CoV-2 exposure notification app on the campus of the University of Arizona (preprint)

ObjectiveTo measure meaningful, local exposure notification usage without in-app analytics. MethodsWe surveyed app usage via case investigation interviews at the University of Arizona, with a focus on the period from September 9 to November 28, 2020, after automating the issuance of secure codes to verify positive test results. As independent validation, we compared the number of verification codes issued to the number of local cases. ResultsForty six percent (286/628) of infected persons interviewed by university case investigators reported having the app, and 55% (157/286) of these app users shared their positive SARS-CoV-2 test result in the app prior to the case investigation interview, comprising 25% (157/628) of those interviewed. This is corroborated by a 33% (565/1,713) ratio of code issuance (inflated by some unclaimed codes) to cases. Combining the 25% probability that those who test positive rapidly share their test result with a 46% probability that a person they infected can receive exposure notifications, an estimated 11.4% of transmission pairs exhibit meaningful app usage. High usage was achieved without the use of "push" notifications, in the context of a marketing campaign that leveraged social influencers. ConclusionsUsage can be assessed, without in-app analytics, within a defined local community such as a college campus rather than an entire jurisdiction. With marketing, high uptake in dense social networks like universities makes exposure notification an impactful complement to traditional contact tracing. Integrating verification code delivery into patient results portals was successful in making the exposure notification process rapid. 3 question summary box1) What is the current understanding of this subject?The extent to which exposure notification technology reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission depends on usage among infected persons. 2) What does this report add to the literature?A novel metric estimates meaningful usage, and demonstrates potential transmission reduction on a college campus. Clear benefit was seen from simplifying verification of positive test results with automation. 3) What are the implications for public health practice?Defined communities can benefit from local deployment and marketing even in the absence of statewide deployment. Lifting current restrictions on deployment would allow more entities such as campuses to copy the model shown here to be successful.

Marginal Value of Quarantine (preprint)

Different combinations of targeted quarantine and broad scale social distancing are equally capable of stemming the transmission of a virus like SARS-CoV-2. Finding the optimal balance between these policies can be operationalized by minimizing the total amount of social isolation needed to achieve a target reproductive number. This results in a risk threshold for triggering quarantine that depends strongly on disease prevalence in a population, suggesting that very different disease control policies should be used at different times or places. Very aggressive quarantine is warranted given low disease prevalence, while populations with a higher base rate of infection should rely more on broad social distancing. Total cost to a society can be greatly reduced given modestly more information about individual risk of infectiousness.

The Timing of COVID-19 Transmission (preprint)

Background: The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. Methods: We examined the distribution of transmission event times with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We analysed 119 transmission pairs with known date of onset of symptoms for both index and secondary cases and partial information on their intervals of exposure. We inferred the distribution for generation time and time from onset of symptoms to transmission by maximum likelihood. We modelled different relations between time of infection, onset of symptoms and transmission, inferring the most appropriate one according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, we estimated the fraction of pre-symptomatic and early symptomatic transmissions among all pairs using a Bayesian approach.Findings: For symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was more directly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. The time of transmission was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. The pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), but a comparably large fraction of transmissions occurred on the same day as the onset of symptoms or the next day (35%; 95%CI 26-45%). We caution against overinterpretation of the fraction and timing of late symptomatic transmissions, due to their dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. Interpretation: Infectiousness is causally driven by the onset of symptoms. Public health authorities should reassess their policies on the contact tracing window in the light of individual variability in presymptomatic infectious period. Information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. The large fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, while the large fraction of early symptomatic transmissions underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information could greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.Funding Statement: The study was funded by an award from the Li Ka Shing Foundation to CF.Declaration of Interests: None of the authors have competing financial or non-financial interests.

The timing of COVID-19 transmission (preprint)

The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

Mutational Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Genome in African Population (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a highly infectious and pathogenic virus has claimed lot of lives globally since its outbreak in December 2019 posing dire threat on public health, global economy, social and human interaction. At moderate rate, mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome are evolving which might have contributed to viral genome variability, transmission, replication efficiency and virulence in different regions of the world. The present study elucidated the mutational landscape in SARS-CoV-2 genome among the African population, which may have contributed to the virulence, pathogenicity and transmission observed in the region. Multiple sequence alignment of the SARS-CoV-2 genome (356 viral protein sequences) was performed using ClustalX version 2.1 and phylogenetic tree was built using Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis (MEGA) X software. ORF1ab polyprotein, spike glycoprotein, ORF3, ORF8 and nucleocapsid phosphoprotein were observed as mutational hotspots in the African population and may be of keen interest in the adaptability of SARS-CoV-2 to the human host. While, there is conservation in the envelope protein, membrane glycoprotein, ORF6, ORF7a, ORF7b and ORF10. The accumulation of moderate mutations (though slowly) in the SARS-CoV-2 genome as revealed in our study, could be a promising strategy to develop drugs or vaccines with respect to the viral conserved domains and host cellular proteins and/or receptors involved in viral invasion and replication to avoid a new viral wave due to drug resistance and vaccine evasion.

The SARS-CoV-2 multibasic cleavage site facilitates early serine protease-mediated entry into organoid-derived human airway cells (preprint)

After the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, a second zoonotic coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2, emerged late 2019 in China and rapidly caused the COVID-19 pandemic leading to a public health crisis of an unprecedented scale. Despite the fact that SARS-CoV-2 uses the same receptor as SARS-CoV, transmission and pathogenesis of both viruses seem to be quite distinct. A remarkable feature of the SARS-CoV-2 spike is the presence of a multibasic cleavage site, which is absent in the SARS-CoV spike. The viral spike protein not only attaches to the entry receptor, but also mediates fusion after cleavage by host proteases. Here, we report that the SARS-CoV-2 spike multibasic cleavage site increases infectivity on differentiated organoid-derived human airway cells. Compared with SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 entered faster into the lung cell line Calu-3, and more frequently formed syncytial cells in differentiated organoid-derived human airway cells. Moreover, the multibasic cleavage site increased entry speed and plasma membrane serine protease usage relative to endosomal entry using cathepsins. Blocking serine protease activity using the clinically approved drug camostat mesylate effectively inhibited SARS-CoV-2 entry and replication in differentiated organoid-derived human airway cells. Our findings provide novel information on how SARS-CoV-2 enters relevant airway cells and highlight serine proteases as an attractive antiviral target.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 infection risk within the Apple/Google exposure notification framework to inform quarantine recommendations (preprint)

Most Bluetooth-based exposure notification apps use three binary classifications to recommend quarantine following SARS-CoV-2 exposure: a window of infectiousness in the transmitter, [≥]15 minutes duration, and Bluetooth attenuation below a threshold. However, Bluetooth attenuation is not a reliable measure of distance, and infection risk is not a binary function of distance, nor duration, nor timing. We model uncertainty in the shape and orientation of an exhaled virus-containing plume and in inhalation parameters, and measure uncertainty in distance as a function of Bluetooth attenuation. We calculate expected dose by combining this with estimated infectiousness based on timing relative to symptom onset. We calibrate an exponential dose-response curve based on infection probabilities of household contacts. The probability of current or future infectiousness, conditioned on how long post-exposure an exposed individual has been symptom-free, decreases during quarantine, with shape determined by incubation periods, proportion of asymptomatic cases, and asymptomatic shedding durations. It can be adjusted for negative test results using Bayes Theorem. We capture a 10-fold range of risk using 6 infectiousness values, 11-fold range using 3 Bluetooth attenuation bins, [~]6-fold range from exposure duration given the 30 minute duration cap imposed by the Google/Apple v1.1, and [~]11-fold between the beginning and end of 14 day quarantine. Public health authorities can either set a threshold on initial infection risk to determine 14-day quarantine onset, or on the conditional probability of current and future infectiousness conditions to determine both quarantine and duration.